Electricity demand in the PJM Interconnection region in the USA is increasing rapidly, driven by data centres, advanced manufacturing, electrification and broader economic growth. Analysis by the American Clean Power Association indicates that, without timely deployment of new clean energy resources, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest states could face reliability risks and higher electricity costs over the next decade.
The analysis identifies a widening gap between rising demand and the availability of new conventional generation, with implications for grid reliability and affordability across the PJM region. Without additional clean energy development, the association estimates that ratepayers in nine PJM states could pay an additional $360 billion over ten years, mainly due to higher wholesale electricity prices. Average residential households could face additional electricity costs of $3,000 to $8,500 over the same period.
Energy affordability in the Mid-Atlantic region has become a political issue. The Trump administration and a bipartisan group of state governors recently called on PJM to take measures to address the situation.
To assess system-wide impacts, the association modelled two scenarios: a base case in which all generation resources are available and a scenario in which no new wind, solar or storage projects are added beyond those already under construction or required by law.
Under the scenario without new clean power, PJM becomes increasingly dependent on ageing fossil fuel generation and imported electricity. Net power imports rise by nearly 300% by 2035, increasing exposure to fuel price volatility and periods of high electricity prices. The analysis also indicates elevated reliability risks during peak demand periods.
According to the analysis, clean energy resources such as wind and solar can be deployed more quickly and operate at lower long-term cost. New electricity loads can typically be constructed within one to two years, while new natural gas power plants usually require five to seven years for permitting and construction.
